Innovation and conservation are constantly competing with each other. Not in the last place in the energy market. The investment world has taught us not to swim against the main (trend) stream; go with the money flow. The trend is your friend. And Oil has been our friend for many years now. It appears that some countries are even addicted to it... Managing innovations is already a very difficult job and timing is the critical success factor. If you go against the trend, your innovation will certainly not make it. The -- conservative -- cash cow provides most of the profits. So why should you endanger this with cannibalising innovations. But if you wait too long, your cash cow, will not run out of milk, but will deliver the wrong kind, one that is no longer desired. Remember the effect of Internet, once it became a new sales channel and has replaced many of the contacts previously exchanged by phone, fax, or snail mail. If your company did not anticipate or at least follow this change, it might have lost not only the internet contacts, but also the traditional client (contacts). So it is all about timing. And so it is with the energy markets. Alternative (innovative) energy -- like solar and wind technologies -- couldnt count on commitment for a long time; our leaders are well aware of the investment rule. However, we might have encountered the end of the flow. The (oil) stream is bending. A sign of this support this hypothesis. Therefore you only need to listen to the state of the union. Is this initiation of a new trend? 2006 Hans Bool |
